Snowy landscape with downtown Cleveland in the background

How climate change is driving winter weather patterns in Ohio

Climate change has had a notable impact on our planet’s weather, from prompting an increase in tropical storms to spurring melting ice caps. Those issues may seem far from Cleveland, but our region experiences global warming in its own ways—even if this week’s blast of frigid temperatures seems to indicate otherwise.

Peter Whiting

To better understand how climate change has affected the wintry conditions we’re accustomed to in Northeast Ohio, we spoke with Peter Whiting, interim dean of the College of Arts and Sciences, professor and director of the Environmental Studies Program

Read on to learn Whiting’s explanations for how Ohio’s weather patterns have been altered by climate change.

1. What atmospheric factors influence changes in climate patterns?

As the globe warms, it does not do so uniformly. The poles warm more than equatorial areas.  This reduces the temperature difference between the equator and poles, which in turn reduces the atmospheric pressure difference and then in turn affects the speed and pattern of atmospheric winds. With warming, the average position of the jet stream retreats toward the poles and this stream of upper atmospheric wind becomes more prone to meandering north and south. This meandering can cause greater extremes of weather.

2. How does climate change play a part?

Climate change has affected snowfall in various ways. Warmer temperatures on average mean that more of the time the atmosphere is too warm for snow to fall to the earth surface or the ground is warmer than in the past and falling snow melts when it reaches the ground. In the mountains, you will see climate change as an average snowline that is at a higher elevation today than in the past. 

The temperature of the atmosphere drops about 3 degrees Fahrenheit for each 1,000 feet of altitude climb. So, if average temperatures in a region have risen by 2 degrees, you would expect the average snowline to be 600-700 feet higher because of climate change.  

3. Have Ohio’s snowfall patterns changed over the past few decades?

In Ohio, the warming means we have more instances of cold rain rather than snow and more days without snow cover. One might expect lower annual snowfall totals with warming and we do see this in much of the U.S. However here in Northeast Ohio, warmer winters keep Lake Erie’s ice from being as extensive as it would have been in the past so there may be more lake effect snow downwind of the lake when Arctic air does spill into Ohio.

4. How does Lake Erie factor into all of this?

With less snow cover in winter and more days of bare soil, winter rain that falls on agricultural fields then runs off the landscape into waterways, including Lake Erie. In the past, fallen snow would have slowly melted and soaked into the ground with less runoff than today. Unfortunately, the runoff also carries sediment and nutrients—such as phosphorus and nitrogen—that pollute waterways and increase harmful algal blooms.

5. Do you have any predictions for what the snowfall could look like this season in our region?

What will this winter bring in terms of snowfall? We have seen average snowfall so far. I am an official snow spotter for the National Weather Service and report twice a day how much snow has fallen and the snow depth. At my house we have received 22 inches so far (as of Jan. 14).  My guess is that we will see average snowfall this year (which is about 60 inches annually) which means we have plenty more snow to come.