artist's rendering of the coronavirus

David Gurarie, of the Department of Mathematics, remarks on the challenges with modeling the outbreak of COVID-19

University of Washington projection: Coronavirus won’t overwhelm Ohio hospitals and ICU beds David Gurarie, professor of mathematics who studies infectious diseases modeling and epidemiology, weighed in on the challenges of modeling the outbreak of diseases: “[In] COVID-modeling at present are big uncertainties of its transmission (rates, pathways), as well as recovery, pathogenicity (fraction of “heavy infections” over “light/asymptomatic”), fatality,” he wrote. “It is believed that a large pool of undetected (asymptomatic) hosts contributes to transmission, which creates large uncertainty for model prediction.”